Warning: Global Stock and Credit Collapse

I started writing the Acamar Journal in April 2004 on the premise that the levels of debt (government, corporate and personal) in the US were rising to unsustainable levels, and that there would be a day of reckoning.

All this has happened but we are only partially through the adjustment process. read the full newsletter

Gold Reaches $1,000 and Falls

The Acamar Journal began publishing in April 2004, when gold was $ 400. It has reached a historic milestone, exceeding $ 1,000 per ounce.

The best part is still to come. read the full newsletter

On the Brink

Ben Bernanke's doctoral thesis at Princeton was about the Great Depression and he concluded that the Fed acted too slowly and did too little to stop the Depression.

I thought he reacted too slowly when the credit crisis first began in July 2007. read the full newsletter

Goldman Sachs, snd The Fed's Conundrum

At a time when Wall Street is taking massive write-downs on mortgage debt, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, received a record bonus of $ 67.9 million, up 30% from last year.

Why? Goldman Sachs's profits grew very nicely during the current credit crisis, while other investment banks were taking record losses. While Goldman was selling mortgage related securities to its clients, it was aggressively shorting the very same products on the markets. So, when the meltdown came, they made a killing. read the full newsletter

$ 3,400 Gold

The Acamar Journal has been warning about a sustained decline in the US Dollar (and predicting a historic bull market in gold) since it began publishing in April 2004. At that time, the US Dollar was above 93 on the US Dollar Index and gold was around $ 325 per ounce. Recently the dollar hit a low of 77.65 (down 17%) while gold reached a 28 year high of $ 750 (up 130%). read the full newsletter

Bank Runs and a Recession, The US$ and Gold, Greenspan's Legacy

In the period following the Crash of 1929, it was a common sight to see depositors desperately lined up outside banks that were rumoured to be about to fail. In September British mortgage lender Northern Rock faced the worst bank run in the UK in 140 years, as depositors wanted to cash out their deposits NOW. read the full newsletter

The Credit Crunch, China and the US$, the Euro, & Gold

The Acamar Journal has been writing about the potential for a financial crisis for some time now but what the market sees as a credit crunch is probably the start of something truly ominous. read the full newsletter

Bond Yields, China's Record Exports, Bees and Inflation

In June, bond yields have moved up aggressively, with the 10 year Treasury bond breaking through 5% for the first time since August 2006. More importantly, the yield has broken through the 26 year long downward trend line, suggesting higher interest rates ahead! read the full newsletter

The China Syndrome

In a five year period till 1929, the Dow Jones increased five-fold, to 381 points. Just days before the Crash in October 1929, the Yale economist, Irving Fisher, said that "stock prices has reached what looked like a permanently high plateau." A millionaire at the time, Fischer did not sell his portfolio after the crash as he waited for markets to rebound but, unfortunately, died penniless. read the rest of the newsletter

US Recession Ahead

The US economy is headed for trouble. The housing market has seen sharp declines in prices and activity, manufacturing shows continued weakness and the US consumer is living a lifestyle that he cannot afford. read the rest of the newsletter

Rare Earth Elements: China's Strategic Monopoly * Understanding the Breakdown in Commodities

Imagine your world without TVs, cell phones, laptop computers, MRIs and CATscans, lasers, advanced aircraft materials, guided missiles and Ipods, among other things. These products need Rare Earth Elements (REE) to produce, a group of 17 elements that most people have never heard of.

In 1992, Deng Xiaoping, then ruler of China, said: "There is oil in the Middle East; there is rare earth in China." In 2005, China produced 95% of the world's supply of REEs. read the rest of the newsletter

Dubai Invests in Vancouver * IMF Warns that Risk of Global Crash Increasing * Commodities Update

Dubai Ports World recently made a global acquisition worth $ 6.8 billion from a British company and, as part of the deal, acquired Vancouver's Centerm Container Terminal, valued at US$ 200 million, as reported by Vancouver's Province newspaper on Sept 7, 2006.

During a visit to Vancouver in Sept, Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, chairman of Dubai World, was very impressed by what he saw. read the rest of the newsletter

2005 US budget deficit * Arab countries and the doomed dollar

The US government uses a cash based system of accounting for its revenue and expenditures, which reported a 2005 budget deficit of $ 318 billion.

Then there is another set of books: an audited statement based on accrual accounting, which is the required standard for all listed companies globally. read the rest of the newsletter

Canadian Mining/Oil and Gas Companies in Dubai * Metals Update * 8.7 Million Millionaires

Over 60 companies are scheduled to provide presentations to institutional investors in Dubai at an investment congress from Oct 30-Nov 2, 2006 at the Jumeirah Emirates Towers Hotel.

These companies are primarily Canadian publicly listed companies, with operations all over the world. They will be augmented with companies listed in the US, UK, and Australia. Canada is a global leader in the mining and oil and gas industries. read the rest of the newsletter

Insight Into Gold * OECD Reprt * Gold Update

Throughout history, economic booms have been localised affairs which generally befitted local investors. The advent of technology and globalisation has recently allowed foreign investors to invest relatively easily in other geographical locations but only a small percentage of investors reach out beyond their local investment opportunities.

Here is what I believe will be different about the continuing boom in gold and silver prices, and why Canadian mining companies will be the beneficiaries of a truly global investor participation. read the rest of the newsletter

Gold and Silver Update * Gold's Message

Gold has now reached US$ 727 per ounce and silver has breached $ 15 per ounce. These are 25 year highs for these metals. Metals such as copper and platinum have set record highs, and the CRB Commodities Index has been on a tear.

It was just in Nov 2005 that gold was poised to break $ 500. It has risen dramatically, fueled by worries about a strike on Iran, inflation, global imbalances and the like. A very important component has been the statements from Central Banks wanting to diversify away from the US $ and increase their holding of gold in foreign currency reserves. read the rest of the newsletter

Company Updates * Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley

With commodity prices showing continued strength, share prices of a number of mining companies have been buoyant. Apart from its macro-economic perspective, the Acamar Journal provides on-going information about five Canadian companies that are involved in the resources industry. Here is a quick update on them (current share price is the closing price for April 6, 2006): read the rest of the newsletter

Cheuvreux predicts US $ 900 gold * China to diversify away from US $ * Great Panther * ...more

Cheuvreux, the equity brokerage house Credit Agricole, raised its mid-cycle gold price estimate from $750/oz to $900/oz, suggesting the possibility gold could climb to $2,000 an ounce and higher, in a January 2006 sector report. Cheuvreux is ranked # 2 for Western European research by Institutional Investor and has eight offices in Europe, with 110 analysts.

London-based Cheuvreux Investment Analyst Paul Mylchreest claimed that "covert selling (via central bank lending) of gold has artificially depressed the price for about a decade, but Bank for International Settlements' data on gold derivatives suggests its impact in on the wan. ...Our $900/oz mid-cycle estimate takes into account the long-term average ratios between the gold price and the prices of oil and the Dow Jones Industrial average." read the rest of the newsletter