Sovereign Debt = Sub-Prime Debt

At the PDAC mining conference in Toronto last week, I thought the turnout was less than last year. This made sense, as by March 2009, investors had lost their shirts and were desperate for information on how to get their money back. Complacency has now set in with this year-long market rally. read the full newsletter

Paper Money and Gold

In 1705, John Law submitted a proposal to the Scottish Parliament that a new bank be set up that issued interest bearing notes to replace gold and silver coins as currency. He believed that public confidence alone was the basis of public credit and would allow bank notes to replace gold. read the full newsletter

Gold/Silver: The First Global Bull Market

In September 2009, the price of gold closed at its highest level in history, on a monthly basis. And this month, gold has reached its all-time highs.

Gold is the only asset category I can think of that is higher in value/price at the end of September 2009 ($995) than when the crisis began in July 2007 ($665), except US bonds but that is only due to massive government intervention. read the full newsletter

Throwing BRIC's

The US has run up massive deficits in recent years and concerns that its creditors would stop funding them were dismissed by the argument that China, Japan and the others needed US markets to keep their export-dependent economies growing and to create jobs. read the full newsletter

US Debt Bubble

Since this recession has been compared to the Great Depression of the 1930s, let's see what happened to the stock markets then. The Dow Jones peaked in Sept 1929 and then fell 48% by November.

It then rose 50% in a bear market rally off that November bottom. The rally lasted until April 1930. read the full newsletter

Warning: Global Stock and Credit Collapse

I started writing the Acamar Journal in April 2004 on the premise that the levels of debt (government, corporate and personal) in the US were rising to unsustainable levels, and that there would be a day of reckoning.

All this has happened but we are only partially through the adjustment process. read the full newsletter

Gold Reaches $1,000 and Falls

The Acamar Journal began publishing in April 2004, when gold was $ 400. It has reached a historic milestone, exceeding $ 1,000 per ounce.

The best part is still to come. read the full newsletter

On the Brink

Ben Bernanke's doctoral thesis at Princeton was about the Great Depression and he concluded that the Fed acted too slowly and did too little to stop the Depression.

I thought he reacted too slowly when the credit crisis first began in July 2007. read the full newsletter

Goldman Sachs, snd The Fed's Conundrum

At a time when Wall Street is taking massive write-downs on mortgage debt, the CEO of Goldman Sachs, Lloyd Blankfein, received a record bonus of $ 67.9 million, up 30% from last year.

Why? Goldman Sachs's profits grew very nicely during the current credit crisis, while other investment banks were taking record losses. While Goldman was selling mortgage related securities to its clients, it was aggressively shorting the very same products on the markets. So, when the meltdown came, they made a killing. read the full newsletter

$ 3,400 Gold

The Acamar Journal has been warning about a sustained decline in the US Dollar (and predicting a historic bull market in gold) since it began publishing in April 2004. At that time, the US Dollar was above 93 on the US Dollar Index and gold was around $ 325 per ounce. Recently the dollar hit a low of 77.65 (down 17%) while gold reached a 28 year high of $ 750 (up 130%). read the full newsletter

Bank Runs and a Recession, The US$ and Gold, Greenspan's Legacy

In the period following the Crash of 1929, it was a common sight to see depositors desperately lined up outside banks that were rumoured to be about to fail. In September British mortgage lender Northern Rock faced the worst bank run in the UK in 140 years, as depositors wanted to cash out their deposits NOW. read the full newsletter

The Credit Crunch, China and the US$, the Euro, & Gold

The Acamar Journal has been writing about the potential for a financial crisis for some time now but what the market sees as a credit crunch is probably the start of something truly ominous. read the full newsletter

Bond Yields, China's Record Exports, Bees and Inflation

In June, bond yields have moved up aggressively, with the 10 year Treasury bond breaking through 5% for the first time since August 2006. More importantly, the yield has broken through the 26 year long downward trend line, suggesting higher interest rates ahead! read the full newsletter

The China Syndrome

In a five year period till 1929, the Dow Jones increased five-fold, to 381 points. Just days before the Crash in October 1929, the Yale economist, Irving Fisher, said that "stock prices has reached what looked like a permanently high plateau." A millionaire at the time, Fischer did not sell his portfolio after the crash as he waited for markets to rebound but, unfortunately, died penniless. read the rest of the newsletter

US Recession Ahead

The US economy is headed for trouble. The housing market has seen sharp declines in prices and activity, manufacturing shows continued weakness and the US consumer is living a lifestyle that he cannot afford. read the rest of the newsletter

Rare Earth Elements: China's Strategic Monopoly * Understanding the Breakdown in Commodities

Imagine your world without TVs, cell phones, laptop computers, MRIs and CATscans, lasers, advanced aircraft materials, guided missiles and Ipods, among other things. These products need Rare Earth Elements (REE) to produce, a group of 17 elements that most people have never heard of.

In 1992, Deng Xiaoping, then ruler of China, said: "There is oil in the Middle East; there is rare earth in China." In 2005, China produced 95% of the world's supply of REEs. read the rest of the newsletter

Dubai Invests in Vancouver * IMF Warns that Risk of Global Crash Increasing * Commodities Update

Dubai Ports World recently made a global acquisition worth $ 6.8 billion from a British company and, as part of the deal, acquired Vancouver's Centerm Container Terminal, valued at US$ 200 million, as reported by Vancouver's Province newspaper on Sept 7, 2006.

During a visit to Vancouver in Sept, Sultan Ahmed Bin Sulayem, chairman of Dubai World, was very impressed by what he saw. read the rest of the newsletter

2005 US budget deficit * Arab countries and the doomed dollar

The US government uses a cash based system of accounting for its revenue and expenditures, which reported a 2005 budget deficit of $ 318 billion.

Then there is another set of books: an audited statement based on accrual accounting, which is the required standard for all listed companies globally. read the rest of the newsletter

Canadian Mining/Oil and Gas Companies in Dubai * Metals Update * 8.7 Million Millionaires

Over 60 companies are scheduled to provide presentations to institutional investors in Dubai at an investment congress from Oct 30-Nov 2, 2006 at the Jumeirah Emirates Towers Hotel.

These companies are primarily Canadian publicly listed companies, with operations all over the world. They will be augmented with companies listed in the US, UK, and Australia. Canada is a global leader in the mining and oil and gas industries. read the rest of the newsletter

Insight Into Gold * OECD Reprt * Gold Update

Throughout history, economic booms have been localised affairs which generally befitted local investors. The advent of technology and globalisation has recently allowed foreign investors to invest relatively easily in other geographical locations but only a small percentage of investors reach out beyond their local investment opportunities.

Here is what I believe will be different about the continuing boom in gold and silver prices, and why Canadian mining companies will be the beneficiaries of a truly global investor participation. read the rest of the newsletter

Gold and Silver Update * Gold's Message

Gold has now reached US$ 727 per ounce and silver has breached $ 15 per ounce. These are 25 year highs for these metals. Metals such as copper and platinum have set record highs, and the CRB Commodities Index has been on a tear.

It was just in Nov 2005 that gold was poised to break $ 500. It has risen dramatically, fueled by worries about a strike on Iran, inflation, global imbalances and the like. A very important component has been the statements from Central Banks wanting to diversify away from the US $ and increase their holding of gold in foreign currency reserves. read the rest of the newsletter

Company Updates * Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley

With commodity prices showing continued strength, share prices of a number of mining companies have been buoyant. Apart from its macro-economic perspective, the Acamar Journal provides on-going information about five Canadian companies that are involved in the resources industry. Here is a quick update on them (current share price is the closing price for April 6, 2006): read the rest of the newsletter

Cheuvreux predicts US $ 900 gold * China to diversify away from US $ * Great Panther * ...more

Cheuvreux, the equity brokerage house Credit Agricole, raised its mid-cycle gold price estimate from $750/oz to $900/oz, suggesting the possibility gold could climb to $2,000 an ounce and higher, in a January 2006 sector report. Cheuvreux is ranked # 2 for Western European research by Institutional Investor and has eight offices in Europe, with 110 analysts. read the rest of the newsletter

Gold Fundamentals * Central Banks' Holding and Buying * Dow Jones and Gold

The price of Gold has breached US$ 500 decisively, and has reached a 24 year high, at $530. Silver prices are very buoyant and have reached $ 9.00. read the rest of the newsletter

Gold Bull Stage 2

It has been a heck of an awesome week for gold, certainly one of the most exciting in recent memory. Not only is the Ancient Metal of Kings closing in on the fabled $500 level in dollar terms, but the psychologically crucial €400 euro-gold level was finally overcome. Gold investors everywhere, including me, are rejoicing. read the rest of the newsletter

Europe's Economic Progress * America's Financial Hurricane * The Mighty Greenback

Terrorism has taken hold of the global psyche as terrorist strikes are taking place wantonly and over a wide geographic area covering Europe, the Middle East, the Indian sub-continent and the Far East. read the rest of the newsletter

Your Opinion * Iran Oil Bourse * Global Crisis * Stagflation

There are a lot of similarities I see between what is happening now and what happened in the 1970s. It was period of stagflation (economic stagnation and inflation) that eventually took the price of gold from $ 35 an ounce in 1971, to a high of $ 850 in 1980. read the rest of the newsletter

News in Brief * Zeal and Stage 2 of the Gold Bull Market

To help Acamar's readers better grasp the investment opportunity that precious metals provide, Adam Hamilton at Zeal LLC has formed a strategic alliance with the Journal to provide his analytical perspective for the Journal's readers. read the rest of the newsletter

UAE Stock Market Update * Housing Bubble * Stock Price Surge

The UAE stock market has been on a tremendous run since 2003. The Dubai Financial Market (DMF) Index has increased from 94 in Sept 2002 to a peak of 1,302, an increase of 1,285%! read the rest of the newsletter

China De-Links from the US Dollar * The Great Game

On July 21, 2005 China formally dropped the link between the yuan and the US$, allowing it to revalue upwards by 2%. The yuan will now be linked to a basket of currencies comprised of China’s major trading partners’ currencies, though the composition has not been divulged. read the rest of the newsletter

GCC Stock Marget Bubble * Gold's Currency Breakthrough * Globalisation * Chinese Demand * South African Blues * Gold Price Prediction

A major milestone has been reached in the bull market in gold. In June, gold broke the Euro barrier: 350 euros to an ounce of gold, in a sustained manner. It is currently over € 360 per troy ounce. read the rest of the newsletter

Dr. Ferdinand Lips in Dubai * Khaleej Times Columnist Matein Khalid * Gold / US $ Update

One of the companies I highlighted earlier this year is Desert Sun Mining Acamar Journal (Jan 2005). On their Advisory Board is Dr. Ferdinand Lips, a renowned gold and currency expert and the author of “Gold wars: The battle against sound money as seen from a Swiss perspective”. Dr. Lips is the co-founder and was the Managing Director of Rothschild Bank AG in Zurich, before opening his own bank, Bank Lips AG. read the rest of the newsletter

For some people 2+2 = Whatever the Agenda Happens To Require

When we are young, we are taught that 2 + 2 = 4. And we saw the world in those terms: clear-cut, black and white, no ambiguity. Then, as we encounter quantum mechanics and real life, we realise that there are shades of grey and moral dilemmas; that things are not always as they may seem. read the rest of the newsletter

Fear in the Markets * The Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression * Bubbles?

In 2003, the Karachi Stock Exchange was ranked by Bloomberg as the best performing stock market in the world. After all, the market had rallied from a low of 1,133 in Sept 2001 to 5,106 at the end of March 2004. It rose 45% in the 12 months to March 2003 and another 87% in the 12 months to March 2004. read the rest of the newsletter

Economic Armageddon * Mary Meeker * US Dollar Slump

Stephen Roach has been bearish for a while. He believes that the US economy is dangerously strained, and so imbalanced that something has to give. But, at a private luncheon late in November he told a select audience of fund managers what was really on his mind: "economic Armageddon". read the rest of the newsletter

US Trade Balance and the US$ * Charts of the Bull Market in Commodities * Real Estate in Vancouver

In an article by Jack Crooks in the Asia Times (‘Ominous: the US deficit vs. the dollar’ Oct 14, 2004), the author quotes Peter Peterson (Chairman, Institute of International Economics): “At 5.4% of GDP [gross domestic product] in the first quarter of 2004, the deficit is substantially higher than its previous record (3.5% of GDP) in 1987, when the dollar fell by a third and the stock market took its "Black Monday" plunge.” read the rest of the newsletter

A Chinese Perspective * An October Surprise * Endeavour Mining

One of the primary reasons that the US $ has declined in a relatively orderly manner over the last three years has been the support provided to it by the Japanese and Chinese central banks. As the US dollar falls, it strengthens the Yen and other currencies like the Euro, making exports from those countries more expensive, which is why they have tried to slow the decline of the US dollar. read the rest of the newsletter

75% chance of a financial crisis in the US within the next five years - Paul Volker

Mr. Volker is so quoted in Peter G. Peterson’s book “Running on Empty”, published July 2004. Mr. Peterson, a Republican who is Chairman of Wall Street’s powerful investment firm the Blackstone Group (over $ 50 billion in assets), has written a damning indictment of this potential crisis facing the US read the rest of the newsletter

O Canada

Since you may be considering investing in Canadian resource equities, it makes sense that I should briefly introduce you to Canada itself. read the rest of the newsletter

First the Good News

The US economy has seen quite remarkable growth in the last three quarters (8.2%, 4.3% and 4.4% respectively). The Fortune 500 (the top 500 companies in the US by sales) has reported record revenues and earnings in 2003, reaching sales of $ 7.5 trillion and earnings of $ 446 billion. The employment market is showing strength, which was the last remaining concern according to many economists. read the rest of the newsletter

The House of Rothchild

A few years ago, I had the opportunity to visit the battle site of Waterloo, near Brussels. In June 1815, after conquering a large chunk of Western Europe, Napoleon Bonaparte’s 105,000 strong army squared off against a largely English force led by the Duke of Wellington (89,000 strong) and supported by a 68,000 Prussian force under Field Marshall Blucher. The fate of England’s financial markets lay in the balance. read the rest of the newsletter

How to Invest in Canadian Stocks

The amazing story of the Internet era was the participation by investors around the globe into the US stock market. The ease of on-line trading, its cost efficiency and access to research on-line permitted participation on a level not seen before in history. read the rest of the newsletter

Dubai - City of Gold

Gold is everywhere to be found in the GCC. People in the region have historically seen it as an intrinsic store of value, as ornamentation, as a symbol of prestige. read the rest of the newsletter

The S&P 500 and Commodities

For the S&P 500 to justify trading recently at 30 times earnings (twice its historical norms), analysts used the low interest environment and the US economic recovery as the rationalisation for high valuations. Now that interest rate increases in the US have become imminent, global stock markets have plunged. Why? read the rest of the newsletter

America is a land of economic marvels

No one saves money, but everyone spends it. Consumers buy things with money they don't have... but never seem to run out. Home prices skyrocket... even though the majority of Americans can't afford one. Bull markets flourish on Wall Street, even though the average stock sells for 35 times earnings. Commodity prices soar, yet the inflation rate barely budges. read the rest of the newsletter

And Now For Something Completely Different

If you earn and save in dirhams, riyals, etc. then like it or not, you’re linked to the US$ and the US economy, neither of which I am particularly sanguine about. Therefore, active investor or not, this newsletter concerns you. read the rest of the newsletter